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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did -37.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-37.3 pts
Called / graded
1/7
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$2.72M
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$421k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will France win on 2026-07-09? at 60¢) and the edge is -50.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 50% · n=6
60–80¢
100% vs 60% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.56M
Last 30 days −$67.7k · $25.81M volume · 7,394 trades · since Mar 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$1.39M
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$165.1k
Closed-position win rate
48%
151 closed
Wallet age · markets
210d
158 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 1 | 3.6 | -37.3 pts |
History
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