Electricy

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did -7.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-7.5 pts

Called / graded

1/3

Expected from price

1.2

Flagged volume

$303.6k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$165.4k

Last 30 days +$53.3k · $8.92M volume · 8,470 trades · since Dec 03, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 484 closed

+$509.6k

Open P&L · 185 positions

−$334.6k

Closed-position win rate

89%

484 closed

Wallet age · markets

690d

636 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	3	1	1.2	-7.5 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 58¢	$91.3k 2.7× usual	58%	100d ago	called
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 42¢	$78.1k 2.3× usual	42%	101d ago	missed
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 22¢	$34.1k	22%	101d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$17.9k	100%	201d ago	excluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$37.7k	100%	206d ago	excluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?	LOW BUY No @ 86¢	$20.9k	86%	206d ago	excluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$23.6k	100%	208d ago	excluded

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY No @ 58¢$91.3k

LOW Electricy · 100d ago

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY No @ 42¢$78.1k

LOW Electricy · 101d ago

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 22¢$34.1k

MED Electricy · 101d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$17.9k

LOW Electricy · 201d ago

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$37.7k

LOW Electricy · 206d ago

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?excluded

BUY No @ 86¢$20.9k

LOW Electricy · 206d ago

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?excluded

BUY No @ 99.5¢$23.6k

LOW Electricy · 208d ago

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