0x7583…4df2

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did -7.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?−$120Yes · avg 7.8¢ → 3.1¢ · $80

Price-adjusted edge

-7.0 pts

Called / graded

1/3

Expected from price

1.2

Flagged volume

$1.08M

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$657.5k

Last 30 days −$107 · $6.96M volume · 1,881 trades · since Jul 10, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$1.39M

Open P&L · 21 positions

−$716.9k

Closed-position win rate

85%

13 closed

Wallet age · markets

106d

35 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	3	1	1.2	-7.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16?	LOW BUY No @ 8¢	$21.0k	8%	37d ago	missed
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	HIGH BUY Spain @ 59¢	$259.6k 2.2× usual	59%	96d ago	called
Will France win on 2026-07-18?	MED SELL No @ 98.8¢	$175.8k	1%	97d ago	excluded
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	LOW BUY England @ 54¢	$54.0k	54%	101d ago	missed
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	MED SELL No @ 82¢	$100.2k	18%	101d ago	excluded
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	MED BUY No @ 59¢	$138.7k	59%	103d ago	called
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	MED BUY Switzerland @ 25¢	$40.0k	25%	104d ago	excluded
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance	MED BUY England @ 59¢	$292.8k 2.5× usual	59%	104d ago	excluded

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16?missed

BUY No @ 8¢$21.0k

LOW 0x7583…4df2 · 37d ago

Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancecalled

BUY Spain @ 59¢$259.6k

HIGH 0x7583…4df2 · 96d ago

Will France win on 2026-07-18?excluded

SELL No @ 98.8¢$175.8k

MED 0x7583…4df2 · 97d ago

England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancemissed

BUY England @ 54¢$54.0k

LOW 0x7583…4df2 · 101d ago

Will France win on 2026-07-14?excluded

SELL No @ 82¢$100.2k

MED 0x7583…4df2 · 101d ago

Will France win on 2026-07-14?called

BUY No @ 59¢$138.7k

MED 0x7583…4df2 · 103d ago

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advanceexcluded

BUY Switzerland @ 25¢$40.0k

MED 0x7583…4df2 · 104d ago

Norway vs. England: Team to Advanceexcluded

BUY England @ 59¢$292.8k

MED 0x7583…4df2 · 104d ago

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