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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 6.0 wins, so it did -27.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-27.4 pts
Called / graded
3/11
Expected from price
6.0
Flagged volume
$1.74M
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$1.0M11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will United States win on 2026-06-19? at 60¢) and the edge is -34.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 52% · n=8
60–80¢
100% vs 63% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$67.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $10.35M volume · 257 trades · since Jun 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2.33M
Open P&L · 63 positions
−$2.23M
Closed-position win rate
98%
55 closed
Wallet age · markets
134d
118 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 11 | 3 | 6.0 | -27.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $293.0k 5.9× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $195.3k 3.9× usual |
missed |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $60.0k | missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 59¢ | $40.0k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 75¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $43.7k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Mexico @ 50¢ | $392.9k 7.9× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Argentina (-2.5) | LOW BUY Argentina @ 44¢ | $100.0k | excluded |
| Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 56¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Spain (-1.5) | MED BUY Uruguay @ 68¢ | $100.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) | LOW BUY Netherlands @ 50¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 50¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $40.0k | called |
| Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 | MED BUY Over @ 47¢ | $70.0k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $40.0k | called |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $90.3k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | LOW BUY Spain @ 55¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | LOW BUY Spain @ 55¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $49.4k | missed |
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