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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -41.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-41.4 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$523.2k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$683.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.91M volume · 285 trades · since Jul 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$436
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$656.2k
Closed-position win rate
50%
6 closed
Wallet age · markets
106d
16 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -41.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $222.0k | missed |
 Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Norway @ 40¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | LOW SELL Yes @ 19¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 26¢ | $271.7k 2.3× usual |
missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x18d82b…