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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 4.0 wins, so it did -11.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-11.6 pts
Called / graded
3/9
Expected from price
4.0
Flagged volume
$613.7k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$244k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (France vs. Spain: Team to Advance at 40¢) and the edge is -20.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 30% · n=2
40–60¢
43% vs 49% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2.09M
Last 30 days +$0 · $13.65M volume · 8,128 trades · since Jun 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3.89M
Open P&L · 21 positions
−$1.78M
Closed-position win rate
92%
40 closed
Wallet age · markets
124d
59 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 9 | 3 | 4.0 | -11.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 54¢ | $167.8k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY No @ 60¢ | $119.0k | called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 40¢ | $60.8k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $11.6k | called |
| Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 37¢ | $24.2k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY No @ 45¢ | $24.5k | missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | MED BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $50.9k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED BUY No @ 23¢ | $80.5k | missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED BUY No @ 41¢ | $74.5k | missed |
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