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What this means. A wallet put $24.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 45% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$24.5k
BUY No @ 45¢ · 54,521 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10k2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Sports
What happened
Wallet hot2trot took No (buy) for $24.5k at an average 45¢. At that price the market implied a 45% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $24.5k+0
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 45¢ means
45%chance the market gave
+122American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 45¢
- Implied odds
- 45.0%
- As American odds
- +122 no vig
- Size
- $24.5k
- Placed
- Jul 03, 08:30 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 04, 13:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- hot2trot
- Tx
- 0x4a20f68f…
This wallet's graded record
3/9-11.6 pts
expected 4.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -45 ptsNo price · entry 45¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $54.9k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $92.2k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $153.1k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.7k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $22.6k | excluded |