0x4cb5…b536

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.2 wins, so it did -5.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?+$3,654No · avg 91.4¢ → 95.4¢ · $86.8k Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$2,749Yes · avg 85¢ → 91.5¢ · $38.7k GTA 6 launch postponed again?+$1,514No · avg 91¢ → 96.7¢ · $25.8k US strike on Colombia by December 31?−$1,343No · avg 80¢ → 74¢ · $15.8k Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?+$4,635No · avg 66¢ → 96.6¢ · $14.6k Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?+$4,248Yes · avg 11¢ → 16¢ · $13.1k Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?+$1,243No · avg 83¢ → 95.5¢ · $9,287 Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?+$892Yes · avg 34¢ → 46¢ · $3,342

Price-adjusted edge

-5.5 pts

Called / graded

3/4

Expected from price

3.2

Flagged volume

$168.8k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$53.1k

Last 30 days −$2,642 · $3.96M volume · 4,278 trades · since Nov 15, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$34.8k

Open P&L · 29 positions

+$18.9k

Closed-position win rate

70%

213 closed

Wallet age · markets

708d

241 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	1	0.9	+11.0 pts
Other	1	0	0.8	-81.0 pts
Economy	2	2	1.5	+24.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$15.3k	81%	267d ago	missed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$90.1k 5.9× usual	89%	307d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$38.2k 2.5× usual	78%	308d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢	$12.3k	74%	308d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$12.9k	91%	383d ago	excluded

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?missed

BUY No @ 81¢$15.3k

LOW 0x4cb5…b536 · 267d ago

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY No @ 89¢$90.1k

LOW 0x4cb5…b536 · 307d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 78¢$38.2k

LOW 0x4cb5…b536 · 308d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 74¢$12.3k

LOW 0x4cb5…b536 · 308d ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?excluded

BUY No @ 91¢$12.9k

LOW 0x4cb5…b536 · 383d ago

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