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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -9.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-9.8 pts
Called / graded
0/7
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$1.12M
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$1.1M7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 8¢) and the edge is -10.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 10% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.26M
Last 30 days +$0 · $12.47M volume · 342 trades · since Dec 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$0
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$1.23M
Closed-position win rate
—
0 closed
Wallet age · markets
318d
2 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 0 | 0.7 | -9.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 12¢ | $54.9k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 12¢ | $120.4k 2.2× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $232.9k 4.2× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 9.5¢ | $617.3k 11.2× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 8.5¢ | $24.4k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 8.1¢ | $42.6k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 7.9¢ | $30.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa7b750…