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What this means. A wallet put $120.4k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 12% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$120.4k
BUY Yes @ 12¢ · 1,020,008 shares in 4 fills
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog side4 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Fresh wallet2.2× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet gud.hl took Yes (buy) for $120.4k at an average 12¢. At that price the market implied a 12% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $120.4k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
4 fills within 1h+1
Fresh wallet (new or ≤5 markets)+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 12¢ means
12%chance the market gave
+747American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 12¢
- Implied odds
- 11.8%
- As American odds
- +747 no vig
- Size
- $120.4k
- Placed
- Jun 21, 12:07 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 19, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- gud.hl
- Tx
- 0x8d7af78b…
This wallet's graded record
0/7-9.8 pts
expected 0.7 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $53.9k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 77¢ | $104.3k 4.7× usual |
called |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 82¢ | $35.0k 2.1× usual |
called |