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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.8 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$1.28M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$370.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $10.22M volume · 7,910 trades · since May 27, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$414.0k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
150d
928 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 77¢ | $104.3k 4.7× usual |
called |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96.2¢ | $75.0k 3.4× usual |
called |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 64¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 64¢ | $10.4k | missed |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | LOW SELL England @ 97¢ | $21.6k | excluded |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | LOW BUY England @ 93.2¢ | $20.7k | excluded |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | LOW BUY England @ 95.1¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW SELL No @ 97¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $50.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED SELL England @ 88¢ | $68.9k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 62¢ | $50.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Egypt @ 83¢ | $22.3k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Egypt @ 54¢ | $48.2k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 47¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW SELL England @ 86¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 62¢ | $80.0k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Argentina @ 97¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | MED BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $40.4k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW SELL Yes @ 63¢ | $23.6k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED SELL Yes @ 91.8¢ | $46.1k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $58.8k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $17.4k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.2¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $50.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? | LOW SELL No @ 90.1¢ | $23.1k | excluded |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? | LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | MED SELL Yes @ 78¢ | $26.8k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW SELL Yes @ 89¢ | $22.8k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW SELL Yes @ 67¢ | $20.9k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98¢ | $22.1k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | MED BUY Yes @ 84¢ | $34.9k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW SELL Yes @ 71¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
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