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What this means. A wallet put $104.3k on No, at a price that gave it a 77% chance. It won. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$104.3k
BUY No @ 77¢ · 136,173 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $100k2 fills in 1h4.7× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet SquareBobSpongePants took No (buy) for $104.3k at an average 77¢. At that price the market implied a 77% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $104.3k+2
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 77¢ means
77%chance the market gave
−327American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 77¢
- Implied odds
- 76.6%
- As American odds
- −327 no vig
- Size
- $104.3k
- Placed
- Jul 19, 17:49 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 19, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- SquareBobSpongePants
- Tx
- 0xe2f972f7…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+3.8 pts
expected 1.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +23 ptsNo price · entry 77¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $53.9k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 82¢ | $35.0k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 90.1¢ | $12.2k | missed |