← Wallets
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did -12.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-12.2 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$322.7k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$15k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance at 47¢) and the edge is -25.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 37% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 53% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$32.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $16.11M volume · 39,500 trades · since Mar 25, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$494.5k
Open P&L · 22 positions
−$8,156
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
213d
1297 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 3 | 2.8 | +5.4 pts |
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.9 | -47.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
 Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW SELL No @ 45¢ | $16.3k | missed |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $37.5k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW SELL United States @ 53¢ | $17.5k | called |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 92.8¢ | $65.0k | called |
 Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $33.0k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ | $33.0k | called |
 Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $14.5k | missed |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY No @ 37¢ | $16.0k | missed |
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xd961dd5107dc8cfbc95d26f3c9c9bac9264235de"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xd961dd5107dc8cfbc95d26f3c9c9bac9264235de.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd961dd…