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What this means. A wallet put $25.8k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 51% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$25.8k
BUY Yes @ 51¢ · 50,401 shares
Size ≥ $10kLate (<1h before start)Sports
What happened
Wallet SquareBobSpongePants took Yes (buy) for $25.8k at an average 51¢. At that price the market implied a 51% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $25.8k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 51¢ means
51%chance the market gave
−105American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 51¢
- Implied odds
- 51.2%
- As American odds
- −105 no vig
- Size
- $25.8k
- Placed
- Jul 07, 12:20 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 07, 12:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- SquareBobSpongePants
- Tx
- 0x4e17a2e4…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+3.8 pts
expected 1.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +49 ptsYes price · entry 51¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | HIGH SELL Yes @ 77¢ | $199.8k 10.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $27.4k | excluded |