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What this means. A wallet put $17.8k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 53% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$17.8k
SELL Yes @ 47¢ · 37,801 shares
Size ≥ $10kLate (<1h before start)Sports
What happened
Wallet SquareBobSpongePants took Yes (sell) for $17.8k at an average 47¢. At that price the market implied a 53% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $17.8k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 47¢
- Implied odds
- 53.0%
- As American odds
- −113 no vig
- Size
- $17.8k
- Placed
- Jul 07, 12:22 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 07, 12:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- SquareBobSpongePants
- Tx
- 0xf907e2d7…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+3.8 pts
expected 1.0 from price
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Entry to resolution
Grade -53 ptsYes price · entry 47¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | HIGH SELL Yes @ 77¢ | $199.8k 10.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $27.4k | excluded |