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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -37.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-37.7 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$770.1k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$808.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $13.05M volume · 1,435 trades · since Jul 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$874.5k
Open P&L · 105 positions
−$1.64M
Closed-position win rate
59%
22 closed
Wallet age · markets
115d
134 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | -51.1 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -11.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $240.0k 3.4× usual |
missed |
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY France @ 36¢ | $100.0k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY France @ 60¢ | $344.0k 4.9× usual |
missed |
| Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland? | MED BUY Yes @ 14¢ | $33.0k | excluded |
| Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Belgium? | LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $11.4k | missed |
| Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $41.6k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd49f58…