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+$197No · avg 95.2¢ → 96.6¢ · $14.0k−$6,518No · avg 81¢ → 42¢ · $7,015−$2,295No · avg 93.6¢ → 70¢ · $6,758−$3,050No · avg 90.1¢ → 60¢ · $5,960−$121No · avg 92.3¢ → 89¢ · $2,869−$3,777No · avg 75¢ → 24¢ · $1,837+$172Yes · avg 13¢ → 14¢ · $1,673−$5,500No · avg 69¢ → 14¢ · $1,450
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.0 wins, so it did +40.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +29.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+40.4 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
3.0
Flagged volume
$732.2k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$494k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 14¢) and the edge is +29.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
100% vs 14% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 54% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$310.1k
Last 30 days −$28.2k · $70.17M volume · 117,238 trades · since Sep 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.36M
Open P&L · 37 positions
−$56.7k
Closed-position win rate
70%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
777d
643 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 4 | 2.0 | +48.8 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +7.0 pts |
History
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