← Wallets
−$24.5kYes · avg 22¢ → 15¢ · $56.2k+$6,328No · avg 74¢ → 85¢ · $48.2k−$3,325Under · avg 49¢ → 46¢ · $43.2k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 11 of 33. The prices it paid implied about 9.8 wins, so it did +3.7 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+3.7 pts over 33 bets). Without its single best bet: +1.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+3.7 pts
Called / graded
11/33
Expected from price
9.8
Flagged volume
$1.21M
Sample size33 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$171k33 graded bets in the order they resolved · 11 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 11¢) and the edge is +1.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
11% vs 11% · n=18
20–40¢
67% vs 26% · n=3
40–60¢
67% vs 48% · n=6
60–80¢
40% vs 66% · n=5
80–100¢
100% vs 80% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2.07M
Last 30 days +$708.0k · $70.71M volume · 53,650 trades · since Oct 30, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3.49M
Open P&L · 30 positions
−$1.33M
Closed-position win rate
60%
271 closed
Wallet age · markets
724d
4222 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 33 | 11 | 9.8 | +3.7 pts |
History
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