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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.5 wins, so it did -9.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-9.7 pts
Called / graded
2/5
Expected from price
2.5
Flagged volume
$2.35M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$281k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? at 61¢) and the edge is -21.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 39% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 44% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 61% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2.46M
Last 30 days +$124.5k · $44.32M volume · 15,904 trades · since May 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$1.13M
Open P&L · 61 positions
−$1.32M
Closed-position win rate
71%
207 closed
Wallet age · markets
167d
236 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 2 | 2.5 | -9.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Eagles vs. Jaguars | LOW BUY Eagles @ 48¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants | HIGH BUY San Francisco Giants @ 48¢ | $430.3k 6.8× usual |
excluded |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals | HIGH BUY Washington Nationals @ 77¢ | $291.8k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics | LOW BUY Minnesota Twins @ 51¢ | $29.8k | excluded |
 New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox | HIGH BUY Chicago White Sox @ 51¢ | $264.8k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 42¢ | $10.4k | missed |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 40¢ | $90.7k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $412.5k 6.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $221.2k 3.5× usual |
called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $75.0k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | MED BUY Switzerland @ 24¢ | $63.4k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Mexico @ 47¢ | $154.7k 2.4× usual |
missed |
 Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | MED SELL Flavio Cobolli @ 40¢ | $156.4k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | LOW BUY No @ 61¢ | $30.5k | called |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | LOW BUY No @ 61¢ | $30.5k | called |
 Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $23.9k | excluded |
 Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-23? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
 Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $20.7k | excluded |
 Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
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