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What this means. A wallet put $105.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 42% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$105.0k
BUY Yes @ 42¢ · 250,000 shares
Size ≥ $100kEarly (>24h before close)4.2× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet sinasinner took Yes (buy) for $105.0k at an average 42¢. At that price the market implied a 42% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $105.0k+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 42¢ means
42%chance the market gave
+138American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 42¢
- Implied odds
- 42.0%
- As American odds
- +138 no vig
- Size
- $105.0k
- Placed
- Jul 12, 08:34 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 14, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- sinasinner
- Tx
- 0xca09d187…
This wallet's graded record
2/6-9.7 pts
expected 2.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -42 ptsYes price · entry 42¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $46.4k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $27.4k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $28.7k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $53.8k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $15.0k | excluded |