← Wallets
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did -9.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-9.7 pts
Called / graded
2/6
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$680.7k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$182k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance at 48¢) and the edge is -22.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 39% · n=2
40–60¢
50% vs 45% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$95.6k
Last 30 days +$94.7k · $4.46M volume · 698 trades · since May 30, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$910.6k
Open P&L · 21 positions
−$985.4k
Closed-position win rate
100%
25 closed
Wallet age · markets
147d
46 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 2 | 2.6 | -9.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 50¢ | $20.0k | called |
 Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 50.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 52¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Bears (-2.5) | LOW BUY Bears @ 55¢ | $22.0k | excluded |
 New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston | LOW BUY New Mexico State @ 58¢ | $22.7k | excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos | MED BUY Seahawks @ 30¢ | $20.9k | excluded |
 Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 36¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $40.5k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $105.0k 4.2× usual |
missed |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $13.9k | missed |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $90.3k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Belgium @ 48¢ | $50.4k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 52¢ | $52.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 38¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $29.5k | excluded |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $97.5k 3.9× usual |
missed |
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x8a260ebadf8ef07e693dd1b0be120b3330dd73c3"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x8a260ebadf8ef07e693dd1b0be120b3330dd73c3.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x8a260e…