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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -24.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-24.0 pts
Called / graded
0/7
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$879.0k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$482k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 12¢) and the edge is -26.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 18% · n=5
20–40¢
0% vs 22% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 57% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.04M
Last 30 days +$0 · $7.07M volume · 836 trades · since Jul 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$1.02M
Open P&L · 32 positions
−$16.3k
Closed-position win rate
70%
60 closed
Wallet age · markets
109d
77 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 0 | 1.7 | -24.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 22¢ | $37.0k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 19¢ | $74.0k | missed |
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | MED BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $200.0k 4.0× usual |
missed |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Norway @ 32¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $28.0k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $92.6k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 16¢ | $34.6k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 12¢ | $30.6k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $192.2k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
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