bettguy

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +2.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

+2.6 pts

Called / graded

2/4

Expected from price

1.9

Flagged volume

$800.1k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$1.19M

Last 30 days +$0 · $8.44M volume · 4,138 trades · since Jun 24, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$1.19M

Open P&L · 0 positions

+$0

Closed-position win rate

50%

42 closed

Wallet age · markets

122d

42 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	4	2	1.9	+2.6 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	MED BUY Spain @ 41¢	$121.3k	41%	101d ago	called
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	LOW BUY No @ 43¢	$22.0k	43%	104d ago	excluded
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢	$41.3k	51%	104d ago	missed
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	MED BUY No @ 45¢	$110.2k	45%	111d ago	missed
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	MED BUY Yes @ 53¢	$190.1k 2.1× usual	53%	118d ago	called
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	LOW BUY No @ 43¢	$45.3k	43%	119d ago	excluded
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	MED BUY Yes @ 72¢	$200.3k 2.2× usual	72%	119d ago	excluded
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	MED BUY Yes @ 26¢	$69.7k	26%	121d ago	excluded

France vs. Spain: Team to Advancecalled

BUY Spain @ 41¢$121.3k

MED bettguy · 101d ago

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?excluded

BUY No @ 43¢$22.0k

LOW bettguy · 104d ago

Will England win on 2026-07-11?missed

BUY Yes @ 51¢$41.3k

LOW bettguy · 104d ago

Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?missed

BUY No @ 45¢$110.2k

MED bettguy · 111d ago

Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?called

BUY Yes @ 53¢$190.1k

MED bettguy · 118d ago

Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?excluded

BUY No @ 43¢$45.3k

LOW bettguy · 119d ago

Will France win on 2026-06-26?excluded

BUY Yes @ 72¢$200.3k

MED bettguy · 119d ago

Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?excluded

BUY Yes @ 26¢$69.7k

MED bettguy · 121d ago

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