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+$544.8kNo · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $1.47M−$544.8kYes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $380.2k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 7.2 wins, so it did -2.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-2.4 pts
Called / graded
7/9
Expected from price
7.2
Flagged volume
$4.49M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$42k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? at 28¢) and the edge is -11.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 28% · n=1
60–80¢
0% vs 65% · n=1
80–100¢
86% vs 90% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3.11M
Last 30 days −$296.2k · $221.81M volume · 107,037 trades · since Aug 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$19.11M
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$88.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
802d
7824 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 6 | 5.6 | +5.1 pts |
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.6 | -28.5 pts |
History
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