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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did -50.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-50.8 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$248.8k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$186.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $921.8k volume · 486 trades · since Jul 08, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2,654
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$44.4k
Closed-position win rate
100%
2 closed
Wallet age · markets
107d
5 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 0 | 1.5 | -50.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY France @ 60¢ | $47.1k | missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY France @ 60¢ | $146.7k 2.7× usual |
missed |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 33¢ | $55.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd72804…