JambonMogettes

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +1.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?+$40No · avg 85¢ → 86¢ · $6,797 France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?−$281Yes · avg 16¢ → 14¢ · $2,719

Price-adjusted edge

+1.4 pts

Called / graded

1/4

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$2.85M

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$123.5k

Last 30 days +$21.2k · $15.51M volume · 7,031 trades · since Jun 01, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$123.0k

Open P&L · 2 positions

−$241

Closed-position win rate

30%

132 closed

Wallet age · markets

146d

88 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	4	1	0.9	+1.4 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 97¢	$22.3k	97%	119d ago	excluded
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	LOW SELL No @ 41¢	$47.8k	59%	126d ago	called
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	HIGH SELL No @ 87¢	$763.0k 3.5× usual	13%	128d ago	missed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED SELL No @ 89¢	$168.3k	11%	128d ago	missed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	HIGH SELL No @ 89¢	$712.6k 3.3× usual	11%	128d ago	missed
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	MED SELL Yes @ 46¢	$215.9k	54%	133d ago	missed
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	MED BUY Yes @ 46¢	$920.0k 4.3× usual	46%	133d ago	called

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 97¢$22.3k

LOW JambonMogettes · 119d ago

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?called

SELL No @ 41¢$47.8k

LOW JambonMogettes · 126d ago

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL No @ 87¢$763.0k

HIGH JambonMogettes · 128d ago

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL No @ 89¢$168.3k

MED JambonMogettes · 128d ago

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL No @ 89¢$712.6k

HIGH JambonMogettes · 128d ago

Will United States win on 2026-06-12?missed

SELL Yes @ 46¢$215.9k

MED JambonMogettes · 133d ago

Will United States win on 2026-06-12?called

BUY Yes @ 46¢$920.0k

MED JambonMogettes · 133d ago

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