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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 14 of 35. The prices it paid implied about 15.5 wins, so it did -4.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-4.4 pts over 35 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-4.4 pts
Called / graded
14/35
Expected from price
15.5
Flagged volume
$2.04M
Sample size35 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$36k35 graded bets in the order they resolved · 14 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? at 32¢) and the edge is -6.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
18% vs 33% · n=11
40–60¢
45% vs 48% · n=22
60–80¢
100% vs 70% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$25.9k
Last 30 days +$202 · $11.59M volume · 7,740 trades · since Jun 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2.16M
Open P&L · 66 positions
−$2.16M
Closed-position win rate
92%
66 closed
Wallet age · markets
136d
129 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 35 | 14 | 15.5 | -4.4 pts |
History
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