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What this means. A wallet put $12.4k on No, at a price that gave it a 29% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-4.4 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.4k
BUY No @ 29¢ · 42,914 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Sports
What happened
Wallet umeax took No (buy) for $12.4k at an average 29¢. At that price the market implied a 29% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $12.4k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 29¢ means
29%chance the market gave
+245American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 29¢
- Implied odds
- 29.0%
- As American odds
- +245 no vig
- Size
- $12.4k
- Placed
- Jul 06, 01:54 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 07, 12:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- umeax
- Tx
- 0xf4d8ddf6…
This wallet's graded record
14/35-4.4 pts
expected 15.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -29 ptsNo price · entry 29¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | HIGH SELL Yes @ 77¢ | $199.8k 10.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $27.4k | excluded |