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What this means. A wallet put $188.9k on No, at a price that gave it a 44% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-4.4 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$188.9k
BUY No @ 44¢ · 427,699 shares in 4 fills
Size ≥ $100k4 fills in 1h4.1× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet umeax took No (buy) for $188.9k at an average 44¢. At that price the market implied a 44% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $188.9k+2
4 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 44¢ means
44%chance the market gave
+126American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 44¢
- Implied odds
- 44.2%
- As American odds
- +126 no vig
- Size
- $188.9k
- Placed
- Jun 29, 08:49 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 29, 13:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- umeax
- Tx
- 0xf2d286dd…
This wallet's graded record
14/35-4.4 pts
expected 15.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -44 ptsNo price · entry 44¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | HIGH SELL Yes @ 96.6¢ | $153.3k 7.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $48.3k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k 2.0× usual |
excluded |