Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$395
Return on staked
-11.3%
Bets
14/35 won
Edge vs price
-4.4 pts ±8.2
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -14.7 pts (5/17). Newer half: +5.3 pts (9/18).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jun 11, 07:09 EDTAug 20, 15:12 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffs | 34¢ | missed | 64d ago |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12? | 43¢ | missed | 73d ago |
| San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves | 69¢ | called | 93d ago |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | 57¢ | called | 96d ago |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | 57¢ | called | 96d ago |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | 46¢ | called | 101d ago |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | 40¢ | called | 102d ago |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | 40¢ | called | 102d ago |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | 41¢ | called | 103d ago |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | 25¢ | missed | 104d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | 38¢ | missed | 107d ago |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | 40¢ | missed | 107d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | 38¢ | missed | 108d ago |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | 29¢ | missed | 110d ago |
| Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw? | 71¢ | called | 113d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.