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What this means. A wallet put $34.9k on No, at a price that gave it a 38% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-4.4 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$34.9k
BUY No @ 38¢ · 92,939 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10k2 fills in 1hSports
What happened
Wallet umeax took No (buy) for $34.9k at an average 38¢. At that price the market implied a 38% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $34.9k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 38¢ means
38%chance the market gave
+166American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 38¢
- Implied odds
- 37.6%
- As American odds
- +166 no vig
- Size
- $34.9k
- Placed
- Jun 20, 01:01 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 21, 00:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- umeax
- Tx
- 0xd82c2fcd…
This wallet's graded record
14/35-4.4 pts
expected 15.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -38 ptsNo price · entry 38¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $29.6k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $21.4k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $83.0k 5.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $38.2k | excluded |