crypto-ericwu

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -36.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-36.0 pts

Called / graded

1/3

Expected from price

2.1

Flagged volume

$336.0k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$91.9k

Last 30 days +$0 · $2.84M volume · 1,395 trades · since Nov 08, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$92.9k

Open P&L · 2 positions

−$975

Closed-position win rate

68%

41 closed

Wallet age · markets

350d

42 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	3	1	2.1	-36.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	MED BUY Yes @ 62¢	$98.6k 3.4× usual	62%	120d ago	called
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	LOW SELL Yes @ 45¢	$23.5k	55%	120d ago	excluded
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	MED BUY Yes @ 51¢	$29.1k	51%	124d ago	missed
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢	$37.8k	69%	124d ago	missed
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$38.2k	0%	125d ago	excluded
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢	$25.9k	68%	125d ago	called
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$25.0k	0%	126d ago	excluded
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$28.8k	77%	129d ago	missed
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	LOW SELL No @ 99¢	$29.0k	1%	130d ago	excluded

Will France win on 2026-06-26?called

BUY Yes @ 62¢$98.6k

MED crypto-ericwu · 120d ago

Will United States win on 2026-06-25?excluded

SELL Yes @ 45¢$23.5k

LOW crypto-ericwu · 120d ago

Will United States win on 2026-06-25?missed

BUY Yes @ 51¢$29.1k

MED crypto-ericwu · 124d ago

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?missed

BUY Yes @ 69¢$37.8k

LOW crypto-ericwu · 124d ago

Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$38.2k

LOW crypto-ericwu · 125d ago

Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?called

BUY Yes @ 68¢$25.9k

LOW crypto-ericwu · 125d ago

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$25.0k

LOW crypto-ericwu · 126d ago

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?missed

BUY Yes @ 77¢$28.8k

LOW crypto-ericwu · 129d ago

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?excluded

SELL No @ 99¢$29.0k

LOW crypto-ericwu · 130d ago

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