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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -51.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-51.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$25.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±50.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$872
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.11M volume · 347 trades · since Dec 21, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$2,128
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$2,348
Closed-position win rate
18%
83 closed
Wallet age · markets
308d
93 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -51.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $10.4k | missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4e6480…