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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 6.5 wins, so it did +20.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +17.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+20.5 pts
Called / graded
9/12
Expected from price
6.5
Flagged volume
$1.15M
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$163k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? at 43¢) and the edge is +17.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
71% vs 48% · n=7
60–80¢
80% vs 64% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$11.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $6.35M volume · 595 trades · since Jun 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$62.4k
Open P&L · 24 positions
−$27.3k
Closed-position win rate
39%
141 closed
Wallet age · markets
126d
165 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 12 | 9 | 6.5 | +20.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $28.6k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY No @ 41¢ | $17.0k | missed |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 33¢ | $18.2k | called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $24.6k | called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 35¢ | $15.4k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | MED SELL Yes @ 67¢ | $54.1k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $35.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $118.3k 7.2× usual |
called |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | MED BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $64.8k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $82.5k 5.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $25.9k | called |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW SELL Yes @ 47¢ | $17.2k | called |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $21.3k | missed |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $26.0k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $60.0k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $15.8k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL Yes @ 53¢ | $10.6k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $14.8k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW SELL Yes @ 64¢ | $11.6k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $10.4k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $14.9k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $13.1k | called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL Yes @ 50¢ | $13.5k | called |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY No @ 38¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $12.4k | missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 67¢ | $14.8k | called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $23.0k | called |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $83.0k 5.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $20.4k | called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 67¢ | $15.2k | missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $30.8k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $12.0k | called |
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