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What this means. A wallet put $28.6k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 41% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$28.6k
BUY Yes @ 41¢ · 70,087 shares
Size ≥ $10kSports
What happened
Wallet tony912 took Yes (buy) for $28.6k at an average 41¢. At that price the market implied a 41% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $28.6k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 41¢ means
41%chance the market gave
+145American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 41¢
- Implied odds
- 40.8%
- As American odds
- +145 no vig
- Size
- $28.6k
- Placed
- Jul 14, 01:13 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 14, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- tony912
- Tx
- 0x5b495a56…
This wallet's graded record
9/12+20.5 pts
expected 6.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -41 ptsYes price · entry 41¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $46.4k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $27.4k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $28.7k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $53.8k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $15.0k | excluded |