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What this means. A wallet put $14.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 38% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?excluded
$14.5k
BUY No @ 38¢ · 38,108 shares
Size ≥ $10kLate (<1h before start)Sports

What happened

Wallet tony912 took No (buy) for $14.5k at an average 38¢. At that price the market implied a 38% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.

Why this was flagged

LOW
Size $14.5k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 38¢ means
38%chance the market gave
+163American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins

Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.

Entry price
38¢
Implied odds
38.0%
As American odds
+163 no vig
Size
$14.5k
Placed
Jun 21, 20:08 EDT
Market close
Jun 21, 21:00 EDT
Result
Yes
Counts toward score
no
Wallet
tony912
Tx
0x1bb0e146…
This wallet's graded record
9/12+20.5 pts
expected 6.5 from price

Entry to resolution

Grade -38 pts
No price · entry 38¢ · resolved Yes
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢ Whale entry 38¢ · $14.5k WHALE $14.5K @ 38¢ MISSED
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Other flags on this market

Market page →
MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?HIGH SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $364.1k0% otsosiusa NEW124d agoexcluded
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $11.0k0% Kelvin789124d agoexcluded
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $19.7k0% zhouqin19888124d agoexcluded
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $20.8k0% fleamarut1124d agoexcluded
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $14.5k0% 0xa04c…9e3f124d agoexcluded
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $123.8k0% joshlick9321124d agoexcluded