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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.1 wins, so it did +36.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +32.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+36.1 pts
Called / graded
7/8
Expected from price
4.1
Flagged volume
$20.92M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$3.0M8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (France vs. Spain: Team to Advance at 41¢) and the edge is +32.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
80% vs 45% · n=5
60–80¢
100% vs 63% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$7.47M
Last 30 days +$0 · $72.13M volume · 8,594 trades · since Jul 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$8.88M
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$1.37M
Closed-position win rate
67%
15 closed
Wallet age · markets
115d
17 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 7 | 4.1 | +36.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Spain @ 65¢ | $365.2k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Spain @ 45¢ | $1.23M | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | HIGH BUY No @ 63¢ | $888.0k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Spain @ 44¢ | $1.79M | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | HIGH BUY No @ 63¢ | $3.53M 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | HIGH BUY No @ 62¢ | $1.11M | called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Spain @ 42¢ | $339.7k | called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 42¢ | $146.6k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY No @ 60¢ | $232.3k | called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Spain @ 41¢ | $565.2k | called |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY England @ 66¢ | $923.7k | called |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $1.14M | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED BUY No @ 41¢ | $216.7k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Belgium @ 47¢ | $1.18M | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 69¢ | $96.2k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $7.16M 7.9× usual |
excluded |
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