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+$3,381No · avg 86¢ → 97.2¢ · $28.2k+$76Yes · avg 8.5¢ → 15¢ · $172+$4No · avg 95¢ → 98¢ · $118
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 10 of 13. The prices it paid implied about 4.4 wins, so it did +43.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 13 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +39.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+43.1 pts
Called / graded
10/13
Expected from price
4.4
Flagged volume
$691.6k
Sample size13 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$771k13 graded bets in the order they resolved · 10 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 16¢) and the edge is +39.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
50% vs 13% · n=6
20–40¢
100% vs 28% · n=2
40–60¢
100% vs 53% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 67% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 81% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.08M
Last 30 days +$1,042 · $45.36M volume · 25,333 trades · since Jul 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$701.9k
Open P&L · 66 positions
−$1.50M
Closed-position win rate
55%
274 closed
Wallet age · markets
828d
266 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 10 | 7 | 2.6 | +44.2 pts |
| Other | 3 | 3 | 1.8 | +39.3 pts |
History
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