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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -25.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-25.9 pts
Called / graded
1/5
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$1.16M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$61k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance at 59¢) and the edge is -42.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
20% vs 46% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$348.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.52M volume · 482 trades · since Jul 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$433.9k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$760.8k
Closed-position win rate
100%
1 closed
Wallet age · markets
97d
3 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 1 | 2.3 | -25.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $647.9k 4.6× usual |
called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $53.4k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $184.7k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $127.5k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $142.4k | missed |
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