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What this means. A wallet put $184.7k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 42% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$184.7k
BUY Yes @ 42¢ · 434,563 shares in 6 fills
Size ≥ $100k6 fills in 1hFresh walletSports
What happened
Wallet fkenzofernandez took Yes (buy) for $184.7k at an average 42¢. At that price the market implied a 42% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $184.7k+2
6 fills within 1h+1
Fresh wallet (new or ≤5 markets)+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 42¢ means
42%chance the market gave
+135American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 42¢
- Implied odds
- 42.5%
- As American odds
- +135 no vig
- Size
- $184.7k
- Placed
- Jul 19, 10:15 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 19, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- fkenzofernandez
- Tx
- 0xdd0517a2…
This wallet's graded record
1/5-25.9 pts
expected 2.3 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -42 ptsYes price · entry 42¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $50.9k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | MED BUY No @ 89¢ | $35.7k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $17.9k | excluded |