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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +42.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+42.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$806.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$283.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.59M volume · 248 trades · since May 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$330.1k
Open P&L · 35 positions
−$580.0k
Closed-position win rate
69%
54 closed
Wallet age · markets
167d
114 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +42.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $50.9k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW BUY No @ 67¢ | $33.9k | excluded |
| Spread: England (-1.5) | LOW SELL England @ 99.9¢ | $21.8k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $54.5k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $60.0k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | MED SELL Yes @ 97¢ | $56.7k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $38.0k | excluded |
| Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 99¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 27¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score | LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $84.5k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | LOW SELL Yes @ 56¢ | $68.8k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ | $65.4k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $24.0k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $16.0k | called |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.5k | excluded |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 51¢ | $118.0k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
 UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 79¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
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