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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.3 wins, so it did -5.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-5.1 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
3.3
Flagged volume
$830.0k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$105k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? at 53¢) and the edge is -15.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 36% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 53% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 68% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$267.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.45M volume · 193 trades · since Jun 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$248.5k
Open P&L · 20 positions
−$502.0k
Closed-position win rate
64%
47 closed
Wallet age · markets
122d
68 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 3 | 3.3 | -5.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $150.3k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $77.0k | missed |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Norway @ 36¢ | $69.6k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $162.1k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $100.0k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | MED BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $180.0k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $71.2k | called |
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