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+$75No · avg 69¢ → 70¢ · $10.4k+$136No · avg 62¢ → 64¢ · $5,749−$50Daniel Santos · avg 51¢ → 50¢ · $5,035+$240No · avg 31¢ → 34¢ · $3,218+$177No · avg 29¢ → 32¢ · $1,644−$23Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard · avg 60¢ → 60¢ · $1,490+$10No · avg 75¢ → 76¢ · $1,435−$34No · avg 20¢ → 20¢ · $1,341
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did +18.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+18.1 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$1.07M
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$202.3k
Last 30 days +$56.5k · $28.62M volume · 8,660 trades · since Dec 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$4.46M
Open P&L · 143 positions
+$698
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
315d
7400 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 3 | 2.3 | +18.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox | LOW BUY Boston Red Sox @ 71¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics | LOW BUY Boston Red Sox @ 58¢ | $11.8k | called |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 64¢ | $13.0k | missed |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $72.0k | excluded |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $146.0k | called |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $150.0k | called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 44¢ | $78.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $285.9k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Belgium @ 47¢ | $100.0k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 52¢ | $200.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
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