← Wallets
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did +5.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -3.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+5.0 pts
Called / graded
4/9
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$1.27M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$211k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? at 27¢) and the edge is -3.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 15% · n=1
20–40¢
33% vs 31% · n=3
40–60¢
50% vs 46% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 65% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.38M
Last 30 days +$0 · $13.17M volume · 9,233 trades · since Jun 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.80M
Open P&L · 18 positions
−$422.3k
Closed-position win rate
64%
59 closed
Wallet age · markets
136d
73 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 9 | 4 | 3.6 | +5.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 43¢ | $66.2k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 43¢ | $43.2k | called |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 61¢ | $28.2k | excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 65¢ | $105.0k | called |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 54¢ | $31.2k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY No @ 39¢ | $78.6k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Egypt @ 15¢ | $11.2k | missed |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 32¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY Belgium @ 46¢ | $69.0k | called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Belgium @ 47¢ | $88.3k | called |
| Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY No @ 45¢ | $45.0k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | HIGH BUY No @ 27¢ | $182.7k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED BUY No @ 43¢ | $193.5k 2.9× usual |
missed |
| South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance | MED BUY South Africa @ 26¢ | $26.0k | missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED BUY No @ 44¢ | $115.5k | missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $175.9k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xc6a63ad5a788a576d4acc9911c50fef9fde49458"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xc6a63ad5a788a576d4acc9911c50fef9fde49458.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc6a63a…