Weekly report card
Week 2026-27
Jun 29, 00:00 EDT – Jul 05, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week
Price-adjusted edge
-2.9 pts
Called
327/646
Expected from price
345.7
Std. error
±1.5
In week 2026-27, 646 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 327 times; entry prices implied 345.7. Whales did no better than the price (-2.9 pts). One week is a small sample.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 392 | 206 | 214.5 | -2.2 pts |
| Other | 246 | 115 | 125.3 | -4.2 pts |
| Crypto | 8 | 6 | 5.9 | +1.7 pts |
Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)
Biggest misses
Every graded flag
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | HIGH BUY No @ 45¢ | $1.40M | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $759.8k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | MED BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $495.6k 6.4× usual |
missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Mexico @ 50¢ | $392.9k 7.9× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | MED BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $348.6k 4.2× usual |
missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Mexico @ 48¢ | $333.0k 5.3× usual |
missed |
| Spread: France (-2.5) | HIGH BUY Sweden @ 68¢ | $288.4k 8.7× usual |
missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $284.7k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $273.8k 4.4× usual |
missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $272.9k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Mexico @ 48¢ | $237.7k 3.8× usual |
missed |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 93¢ | $232.5k 5.6× usual |
called |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Argentina @ 91¢ | $232.3k 4.7× usual |
called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | HIGH BUY No @ 47¢ | $218.7k 10.4× usual |
missed |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 94¢ | $200.1k 4.8× usual |
called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Mexico @ 48¢ | $199.8k 3.2× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | MED BUY Yes @ 85¢ | $191.5k 9.4× usual |
missed |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | MED BUY No @ 44¢ | $188.9k 4.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | HIGH BUY No @ 27¢ | $182.7k 2.7× usual |
called |
 Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH SELL No @ 95.5¢ | $176.1k 3.6× usual |
missed |
| Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 | MED BUY Over @ 63¢ | $170.2k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $169.7k 2.7× usual |
missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | HIGH BUY No @ 46¢ | $164.7k 7.8× usual |
missed |
 Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY No @ 93.3¢ | $163.2k 3.4× usual |
called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Mexico @ 47¢ | $154.7k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw? | MED BUY No @ 71¢ | $152.3k 3.3× usual |
called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 30¢ | $142.1k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 93¢ | $141.0k | called |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 5.9¢ | $139.3k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Spread: France (-2.5) | MED BUY Sweden @ 69¢ | $134.7k 3.2× usual |
missed |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | MED BUY No @ 93¢ | $133.2k 6.5× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $130.6k 6.4× usual |
called |
| Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia? | HIGH BUY No @ 88¢ | $129.2k 4.9× usual |
missed |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH SELL No @ 95.8¢ | $127.9k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED BUY No @ 92¢ | $125.8k | called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | MED BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $121.4k | missed |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY No @ 94.4¢ | $120.8k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $117.4k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 93¢ | $116.4k 4.5× usual |
called |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 94¢ | $115.0k | called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | MED BUY No @ 55¢ | $111.0k 3.5× usual |
called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED BUY No @ 90¢ | $110.3k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | MED BUY No @ 45¢ | $110.2k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 94¢ | $103.2k 4.2× usual |
called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | MED BUY No @ 66¢ | $103.1k 3.6× usual |
called |
 Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH SELL No @ 96.6¢ | $101.8k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED BUY No @ 78¢ | $100.7k 2.8× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $100.0k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $100.0k | missed |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | MED BUY No @ 84¢ | $99.1k 6.1× usual |
called |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $97.7k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Mexico @ 48¢ | $96.0k | missed |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 95.7¢ | $95.7k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED BUY No @ 94¢ | $94.0k 3.9× usual |
called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED SELL No @ 92¢ | $92.0k | missed |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 91.7¢ | $91.7k 3.2× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $91.7k 4.5× usual |
called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Mexico @ 46¢ | $89.7k 3.6× usual |
missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Mexico @ 49¢ | $87.9k 3.9× usual |
missed |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $82.3k | called |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.7¢ | $80.8k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED BUY No @ 23¢ | $80.5k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $80.0k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $78.7k | called |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH SELL No @ 94.5¢ | $78.1k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 38¢ | $76.0k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $76.0k 3.8× usual |
called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Mexico @ 49¢ | $76.0k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $74.6k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $74.0k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $71.2k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $70.4k | called |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 91¢ | $68.3k 2.8× usual |
called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED SELL No @ 77¢ | $67.5k 2.9× usual |
missed |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | MED BUY No @ 44¢ | $67.2k 3.2× usual |
missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 52¢ | $66.4k 3.3× usual |
called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Mexico @ 47¢ | $65.8k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $64.8k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $64.4k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $64.4k 3.3× usual |
called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED BUY No @ 92¢ | $64.1k 3.2× usual |
called |
| Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Norway? | MED BUY No @ 88¢ | $64.0k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $63.3k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | MED BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $62.4k 3.1× usual |
missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED SELL No @ 88¢ | $61.6k | missed |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | MED SELL No @ 80¢ | $60.9k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $60.0k 2.2× usual |
missed |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | MED SELL No @ 71¢ | $59.5k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 54¢ | $59.2k | called |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $58.0k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $56.3k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $56.0k | called |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL No @ 91.5¢ | $55.7k | missed |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 8.5¢ | $55.2k | missed |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 8.9¢ | $53.4k 3.3× usual |
missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ | $53.0k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Mexico @ 50¢ | $51.2k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 65¢ | $51.2k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $51.2k | called |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 8.5¢ | $51.0k | missed |
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?calledBUY No @ 78¢$100.7k
MED DonaldinhoTrumpito · 226d ago
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to AdvancecalledBUY Argentina @ 91¢$68.3k
LOW Painfulvoid · 114d ago
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