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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 8 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.4 wins, so it did +44.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +43.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+44.6 pts
Called / graded
8/8
Expected from price
4.4
Flagged volume
$972.7k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$385k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 8 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Knicks vs. Cavaliers at 45¢) and the edge is +43.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 48% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 63% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$85.6k
Last 30 days −$6,619 · $4.52M volume · 188 trades · since May 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$706.1k
Open P&L · 37 positions
−$605.7k
Closed-position win rate
89%
66 closed
Wallet age · markets
157d
101 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 8 | 4.4 | +44.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW SELL Yes @ 39¢ | $80.3k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | MED BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $152.3k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $97.7k | called |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $96.9k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $98.0k | called |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $73.4k | called |
 Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | LOW BUY BetBoom Team @ 44¢ | $34.1k | excluded |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Spurs @ 46¢ | $64.3k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 60¢ | $34.2k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Thunder @ 40¢ | $23.2k | called |
 LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | LOW SELL BNK FEARX @ 99.9¢ | $61.8k | excluded |
| LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | LOW BUY BNK FEARX @ 55¢ | $34.2k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 42¢ | $24.3k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 61¢ | $49.9k | called |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Knicks @ 45¢ | $24.4k | called |
| Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs | LOW SELL Legacy @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 46¢ | $12.2k | called |
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