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+$7,022Yes · avg 42¢ → 75¢ · $15.8k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did +6.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -6.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+6.0 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$709.6k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$36k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will United States win on 2026-06-12? at 46¢) and the edge is -6.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 47% · n=4
80–100¢
100% vs 81% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$433.8k
Last 30 days −$188.3k · $14.26M volume · 3,543 trades · since Jun 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$430.6k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$2,974
Closed-position win rate
50%
248 closed
Wallet age · markets
141d
233 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 2.7 | +6.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 41¢ | $29.5k | excluded |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $48.6k | called |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | LOW BUY FURIA @ 59¢ | $60.4k | excluded |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
 Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Mexico @ 49¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Mexico @ 49¢ | $76.0k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Mexico @ 47¢ | $47.0k | missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $152.8k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $147.8k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $42.7k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $47.0k | called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $19.1k | called |
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