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+$27.3kNo · avg 89¢ → 98¢ · $298.3k+$7,550No · avg 90.1¢ → 97.7¢ · $97.6k+$6,467No · avg 85¢ → 94.5¢ · $61.4k · 1 proven with, 0 against
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 8 of 13. The prices it paid implied about 7.4 wins, so it did +4.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 13 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -0.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+4.7 pts
Called / graded
8/13
Expected from price
7.4
Flagged volume
$1.07M
Sample size13 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$112k13 graded bets in the order they resolved · 8 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? at 35¢) and the edge is -0.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
33% vs 34% · n=3
40–60¢
50% vs 47% · n=6
60–80¢
100% vs 65% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 96% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$174.3k
Last 30 days +$14.7k · $3.75M volume · 344 trades · since Apr 21, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$437.9k
Open P&L · 15 positions
−$263.9k
Closed-position win rate
92%
12 closed
Wallet age · markets
186d
27 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 13 | 8 | 7.4 | +4.7 pts |
History
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excludedBUY Yes @ 50¢$12.2k
LOW Clicker1 · 132d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excludedBUY Yes @ 56¢$11.5k
LOW Clicker1 · 132d ago
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