Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$59
Return on staked
+4.5%
Bets
8/13 won
Edge vs price
+4.7 pts ±12.2
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -17.4 pts (3/6). Newer half: +23.7 pts (5/7).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 22, 10:02 EDTJun 14, 17:43 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 65¢ | called | 131d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 47¢ | missed | 133d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | 52¢ | called | 133d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | 35¢ | called | 144d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 44¢ | called | 148d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 37¢ | missed | 148d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 54¢ | called | 149d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | 41¢ | missed | 150d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 30¢ | missed | 151d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 46¢ | missed | 152d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 96¢ | called | 153d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 95¢ | called | 170d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 96¢ | called | 184d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.