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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did +7.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+7.8 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$378.1k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$80.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.14M volume · 96 trades · since Oct 25, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$181.7k
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$76.7k
Closed-position win rate
100%
27 closed
Wallet age · markets
364d
40 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 3 | 2.7 | +7.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $91.7k 4.5× usual |
called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $20.4k | missed |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $20.3k | called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $18.3k | called |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | MED SELL Yes @ 88¢ | $39.7k | excluded |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | MED BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $32.4k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW SELL Yes @ 81¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW SELL Yes @ 92¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | MED SELL Yes @ 70¢ | $70.1k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $30.2k | excluded |
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